Proposal Win Probability Calculator
Convert an active proposal pipeline into probability-weighted revenue so the headline pipeline total can be compared with the amount the business can reasonably expect to win.
Enter the active proposal pipeline
Value each active proposal
Enter each proposal's potential revenue, current win probability and expected gross margin. Probability should reflect the specific deal rather than a generic stage label whenever possible.
Weighted value by active proposal
| Proposal | Raw value | Win probability | Weighted revenue | Gross margin | Weighted gross profit | Share of weighted pipeline |
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Pipeline value if every proposal probability shifts
| Probability adjustment | Weighted revenue | Weighted gross profit | Target coverage | Expected wins |
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Raw pipeline required at different average win probabilities
| Average win probability | Required weighted value | Required raw proposal pipeline | Current raw pipeline | Raw pipeline gap |
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Weighted pipeline is an expected-value tool
Probability-weighted pipeline is useful for planning but does not mean the business will win the calculated weighted revenue. Proposal outcomes are discrete and often correlated by market conditions, procurement timing, buyer budgets or competitive events. Win probabilities should be calibrated from comparable historical proposals where possible and updated when material deal information changes. The weighted values in this calculator are planning estimates, not recognized revenue or guaranteed forecast results.